NFL Week 1 Picks – The Week That Vegas Forgot

I am going to try to start picking games each week. In some capacity, I have been picking games for fun and profit for the past decade or so, so I thought this year it would be fun to take on Vegas.

Here are my ground rules:
1. Line is based on when I make the picks. I get the line from Yahoo.
2. I have to place a bet on every game. Bets can be from $10 – $100, based on how strongly I feel about the difference between the line and the potential outcome. Ties are a push.
3. I won’t actually be placing any bets – you need to gamble at your own risk.

I will keep track of week-to-week earnings. Let’s get into Week 1:

The trick with gambling on the NFL is to strike early, before anyone (particularly Vegas) has any idea what is going on. A few lines will jump out in the first few weeks for being completely crazy – I have always exploited that.

Pick of the week

Dallas (-5.5) at Cleveland
You are given the keys to a Dodge Viper. The first time you drive it, don’t you take it on the highway and push it a little bit? The Cowboys are that Viper and in Week 1, they will open it up in Cleveland, just a little bit. This line is silly low, Dallas will win by 9+.
$100 – Dallas

Solid Picks

Denver (-3) at Oakland
Denver is more than three points better than Oakland right now. Oakland is a case study on how not to run an NFL Franchise. Why don’t they try to improve?
$50 – Denver

Washington (+4) at NY Giants
If Washington can stay in this and establish the run, then they have a good shot at keeping it close. They have a great offensive line and a good defense. However, the passing offense has looked terrible thus far. If they get down two scores, there will be blood in the water and the Giants will swarm. Look for Eli and his crew to jump to an early lead and look for a 3rd quarter collapse from the ‘Skins trying to play catch-up.
$70 – NYG

The Middle Picks

These lines seem low:

Detroit (-3) at Atlanta
Detroit – $20

Jacksonville (-3) at Tennessee
Jacksonville – $40

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans
New Orleans – $20

These seem high:

Chicago (+9.5) at Indianapolis
Chicago – $20

St. Louis (+7.5) at Philadelphia
St. Louis – $30

Carolina (+9) at San Diego
Carolina – $20

Upset Picks

NY Jets (-3) at Miami
Miami will run like a train on the Jets. Favre will blow it with one or two key INT’s.
Miami – $20

Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay
Minnesota will run like a train on the Packers. The ghost of Brett Favre will blow it with one or two key INT’s.
Minnesota – $20

Questionable Picks

I don’t want to think too much about these games.

Houston (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh wins, but by a TD? Houston is secretly very good – they are this year’s Browns.
Pittsburgh – $10

Arizona (-2.5) at SF
Yuck.
Arizona – $10

Seattle (+1) at Buffalo
Yuck-er
Seattle – $10

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Yuck-est
Baltimore – $10