$1,000 – Cardinals (+4) over Eagles. This line opened at +3 and CREPT UP. I can’t believe it. This is a huge gift to every NFL gambler. The Cardinals have what it takes to cover this at home.

So if this shakes out the way I think, I will be vindicated and up for the season. If not, I will not fake-gamble on the NFL anymore.

Top Picks: 0-2, -$200
Solid Picks: 2-4, -$120
Crap Picks:  4-4, $0

Week 3 Total: 6-10, -$320

Season Total: 23-22, -$250

Picks of Week

Cleveland (+3.5) at Cincinnati
I have a strong feeling about this one.  Cleveland has so much more to prove and can win the toughness battle.  The Bengals are just godawful.
Cleveland – $100

San Diego (-7.5) at Oakland
This line opened at even odds and has crept up a concerning amount.  Gamblers everywhere are look for the Bolts to put up a big division win on the road.  Let me whisper something to you guys betting big on the Bolts: *San Diego stinks.*
Oakland – $100

Solid Picks

Buffalo (+8) at St. Louis
St. Louis has yet to not disappoint.
Buffalo – $50

San Francisco (+5) at New Orleans
A pass-happy offensive team playing against a team with a mediocre secondary in a dome?  Yes, the 49′ers are for real and they win this one outright.
San Fran – $70

Philadelphia (+3) at Chicago
You are teling me that Chicago is better than Pittsburgh?  Eagles’ D goes nuts.
Philly – $70

Crap Picks

Baltimore (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
Vegas has no appreciation of history.  Two field goals is a big line.
Ravens – $10

Minnesota (+3) at Tennessee
Minnesota (wins outright) – $10

Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay – $10

Arizona (+1.5) at Jets
Jets – $10

Houston (+7) at Jacksonville
Jacksonville – $10

Denver (+9.5) at KC
Denver – $10

Washington (+11) at Dallas
Dallas – $10

Atlanta (+7) at Carolina
Carolina – $10

Top Picks: 2-3, -$130
Middle Picks: 2-2, $0
Crap Picks: 4-1, +$30

All picks last week:  8-6, -$100

Season Total: 17-12, +$70

Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Philly
3.5 is a magic number, a FG doesn’t win it.  I love the Steelers and I think they may actually play some defense in this game, unlike Dallas against Philly last week.  This is tough test #1 for Pittsburgh on the road to the playoffs.
Pittsburgh – $100

NO (+5.5) at Denver
So the team that gets beat by the Campbell-Moss combo is losing by less than a touchdown to the Cutler-Marshall combo on the road?
Denver – $100

Solid Picks

Jacksonville (+5) at Indy
This is a tough line for this game, but I think Indy blows them out.  Peyton carried that team last week and Jacksonville is much, much worse than most people realize.
Indy – $70

Dallas (+3) at Green Bay
This line opened at even money and I wish I had jumped on it sooner.  This is a make-up game for Dallas from Monday night’s debacle.  Look for their secondary to play with renewed intensity, in an effort to make up for nearly giving away the game to McNabb.
Dallas – $70

Houston (+4.5) at Tennessee
I predict that the announcers at the end of this game will be saying something like: “Do you know who the real winners are?  The people of Houston and Galveston.”
Houston – $70

KC (+5.5) at Atlanta
KC has shown me nothing.  NOTHING!
Atlanta – $50

Cleveland (+2.5) at Baltimore
The slide ends here.
Cleveland – $50

NY Jets (+9) at San Diego
Two forces pushing here – San Diego can’t be 0-3 and Farve can’t lose in front of a big audience.  I think the Jets keep it closer than 9.
Jets – $50

Crap Picks

Oakland (-9.5) at Buffalo
This line scares me off.
Buffalo – $10

Tampa Bay (+3) at Chicago
I have Earnest Graham in fantasy, so I pray.  If you don’t have to, don’t bet on this game!
Tampa – $10

Miami (+12.5) at New England
Coach Sweatpants will run up the score.  Pats D will score.  It will get ugly, but two touchdowns ugly?
New England – $10

Bengals (+13) at NY Giants
Line seems about right.  Let’s call it two touchdowns.
Giants – $10

Arizona (+3) at Washington
Washington isn’t that good… but I said that last week.
Washington – $10

Carolina (+3.5) at Minnesota
Minnesota – $10

Detroit (+4) at San Fran
San Fran – $10

St. Louis (+9.5) at Seattle
St. Louis – $10

Top Picks: 3-0, +$220
Middle Picks: 3-3, -$30
Upset Picks: 0-2, -$40
Questionable Picks: 3-1, +$20

All picks last week:  9-6, +$170

Not too shabby.  Outside of my top picks, my analysis was pretty terrible – but I also don’t want to spend all day thinking about every matchup.  Let’s get into next week:

Picks of the week

Atlanta (+7) at Tampa Bay
Really?  This line is really 7?  After Tampa Bay lost to the Saints like that on Sunday?  Were the bookmakers watching the same game that I was?  Both of these teams run a ton, is Greise really going to come in and run up the score? 
Atlanta – $100

New Orleans (EVEN) at Washington
Is Washington going to be like last year’s Patriots, except the
opposite, in that they are going to be giving too few points, week
after week?  This line should be -7.  Also, the over/under is 42, I
smell a tease with the under here, because THE SKINS HAVE NO OFFENSE.
New Orleans – $100

Solid Picks

New England (+1.5) at NY Jets
There are 10 other players on the field.
New England – $70

Buffalo (+5.5) at Jacksonville
I think it is reasonable to say that Jacksonville will not run wild on Buffalo.  Again, it is as if nobody watched last week’s games.  This spread should be about +1.
Buffalo – $70

Philadelphia (+7) at Dallas
If this was at +6, it would be a lock of the week. 
Dallas – $70

Middle Picks

NY Giants (-8.5) at St. Louis
I can’t trust that the Rams are THAT bad, and they are at home. 
St. Louis – $30

Tennessee (+1.5) at Cincinnati
Kerry Collins !< Vince Young.
Tennessee – $30

Miami (+6.5) at Arizona
Line seems high, Pennington is a loser, but a player.  He is a “tough win”.
Miami – $30

San Diego (-1) at Denver
Denver at home + San Diego is overrated.  Denver wins outright, has coming out party as the best team in the West.
Denver – $30

Baltimore (+4.5) at Houston
This might be my last week of faith in the Texans.  They really should win this by 6+.
Houston – $30

Crap Picks

Chicago (+3) at Carolina
Carolina offense is going nuts. 
Carolina – $10

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit
Is Detroit really as good as Minnesota, because that what this line tells me.  Maybe, but I’m sticking with the Pack.
Green Bay – $10

Indianapolis (+1.5) at Minnesota
I’d like to think that Indy is much better than the Vikings, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
Indy – $10

Oakland (-3.5) at Kansas City
This game opened at even odds.  It should have stayed that way.  The thought of watching this games makes me throw up a little.
Oakland – $10

Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland
It might storm at game time, thus not a solid pick.  Seriously.
Pittsburgh – $10

San Fran (+7) at Seattle
This opened at +9, and is still too high.
San Fran – $10

Here are my ground rules:
1. Line is based on when I make the picks. I get the line from Yahoo.
2. I have to place a bet on every game. Bets can be from $10 – $100, based on how strongly I feel about the difference between the line and the potential outcome. Ties are a push.
3. I won’t actually be placing any bets – you need to gamble at your own risk.

I will keep track of week-to-week earnings. Let’s get into Week 1:

The trick with gambling on the NFL is to strike early, before anyone (particularly Vegas) has any idea what is going on. A few lines will jump out in the first few weeks for being completely crazy – I have always exploited that.

Pick of the week

Dallas (-5.5) at Cleveland
You are given the keys to a Dodge Viper. The first time you drive it, don’t you take it on the highway and push it a little bit? The Cowboys are that Viper and in Week 1, they will open it up in Cleveland, just a little bit. This line is silly low, Dallas will win by 9+.
$100 – Dallas

Solid Picks

Denver (-3) at Oakland
Denver is more than three points better than Oakland right now. Oakland is a case study on how not to run an NFL Franchise. Why don’t they try to improve?
$50 – Denver

Washington (+4) at NY Giants
If Washington can stay in this and establish the run, then they have a good shot at keeping it close. They have a great offensive line and a good defense. However, the passing offense has looked terrible thus far. If they get down two scores, there will be blood in the water and the Giants will swarm. Look for Eli and his crew to jump to an early lead and look for a 3rd quarter collapse from the ‘Skins trying to play catch-up.
$70 – NYG

The Middle Picks

These lines seem low:

Detroit (-3) at Atlanta
Detroit – $20

Jacksonville (-3) at Tennessee
Jacksonville – $40

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans
New Orleans – $20

These seem high:

Chicago (+9.5) at Indianapolis
Chicago – $20

St. Louis (+7.5) at Philadelphia
St. Louis – $30

Carolina (+9) at San Diego
Carolina – $20

Upset Picks

NY Jets (-3) at Miami
Miami will run like a train on the Jets. Favre will blow it with one or two key INT’s.
Miami – $20

Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay
Minnesota will run like a train on the Packers. The ghost of Brett Favre will blow it with one or two key INT’s.
Minnesota – $20

Questionable Picks

I don’t want to think too much about these games.

Houston (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh wins, but by a TD? Houston is secretly very good – they are this year’s Browns.
Pittsburgh – $10

Arizona (-2.5) at SF
Yuck.
Arizona – $10

Seattle (+1) at Buffalo
Yuck-er
Seattle – $10

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore
Yuck-est
Baltimore – $10